About Me

Welcome to my homepage!

I am an Economist in the monetary policy department at De Nederlandsche Bank (Dutch central bank) and a PhD candidate at the Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance (CeNDEF) of the University of Amsterdam (UvA). My core research interests lie in the fields of macroeconomics, monetary policy and the macro-finance linkages.

Besides, I am a Junior Risk and Macro Finance Fellow of the Amsterdam Center of Excellence in Risk and Macro Finance (ACRM). In Amsterdam, my doctoral advisers are Prof. Cars Hommes and Dr. Kostas Mavromatis. Before joining the UvA, I completed the MPhil program at the Tinbergen Institute.

Please click on the links above to find out more about me, my research and other interests, or feel free to contact me directly.

Find me on

  • NAMEGavin Goy
  • POSITIONEconomist at DNB
  • ADDRESSWesteinde 1 Amsterdam
  • E-MAIL[email protected]
  • PHONE+31 (0)20 5243 623

Resume

Relevant experience

EconomistNov. 2018 – current

De Nederlandsche Bank

PhD TraineeApril 2018 – Oct. 2018

European Central Bank

Visiting ResearcherMay 2016 – Oct 2018

De Nederlandsche Bank

Intern Operational Risk ManagementFeb. 2013 – May 2013

Commerzbank Frankfurt/Main

Research internshipOct. 2012 – Jan. 2013

ifo Institute Munich

Education

Ph.D. in Economics2015 – 2019

University of Amsterdam

M.Phil. in Economics2013 – 2015

Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam

B.Sc. in Economics2009 – 2012

Goethe University Frankfurt/Main

Please click here to download my CV.

Research

Publications

“Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union” (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2019) with Dennis Bonam

Abstract: Under monetary union, economic dynamics may diverge across countries due to regional inflation differentials and a pro-cyclical real interest rate channel, yet stability is generally ensured through endogenous adjustment of the real exchange rate. The speed of adjustment depends, inter alia, on the way agents form expectations. We propose a model in which agents’ expectations are largely based on domestic variables, and less so on foreign variables. We show that such home bias in expectations strengthens the real interest rate channel and causes country-specific shocks to generate larger and more prolonged macroeconomic imbalances.

Working Papers

“Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs” (R&R at JEBO) with Cars Hommes and Kostas Mavromatis

Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of central bank forward guidance when central bank credibility is endogenous. In particular, we take a stylized New Keynesian model subject to an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates and heterogeneous and boundedly rational households. The central bank uses a bivariate VAR to forecast, not taking into account the time-variation in the distribution of aggregate expectations. We extend the central bank’s toolkit to allow for the publication of its own forecasts (Delphic guidance) and the (imperfectly credible) commitment to a future path of the nominal interest rate (Odyssean guidance). We find that both Delphic and Odyssean forward guidance increase the likelihood of recovery from a liquidity trap. While Odyssean guidance can increase ex post macroeconomic volatility, it still appears to be more powerful.

“Country risk premium shocks and capital controls across exchange rate regimes” with Dennis Bonam and Emmanuel de Veirman

Abstract: The euro area sovereign debt crisis proved that country risk premium shocks have adverse economic effects, not only in emerging economies, but advanced economies as well. Using a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregression model, we find that increases in the risk premium lower output under monetary union, yet not in countries with flexible exchange rates and independent monetary policies. We study the transmission mechanism in a two-country New Keynesian model and show that capital controls substantially attenuate the effects of risk premium shocks. However, the welfare gain of imposing capital controls hinges on the nature of the shock and
the prevailing exchange rate regime.

 

Work in progress

Natural Rate Chimera and Bond Pricing Reality (joint with Claus Brand and Wolfgang Lemke)

Pessimistic beliefs and the effects of quantitative easing (joint with Dennis Bonam)

Housing bubbles, international capital flows and home biased expectations

Heterogeneous planing horizon and debt sustainability under monetary union (joint with Joep Lustenhouwer and Kostas Mavromatis)

Teaching

Macroeconomics II:

Graduate-level course at Tinbergen Institute, Teaching assistant to Prof. Dr. Christian Stoltenberg, Spring 2015

Mathematics:

Undergraduate-level course at University of Amsterdam, Teaching assistant to Dr. Joris Marée and Dr. Arjen Valstar, Fall 2015 and 2016

Thesis supervision for BSc Econometrics:

Section of Quantitative Economic, Amsterdam School of Economics , Spring 2016

Other interests

Besides economics, my greatest passion is aviation. It all began in my early childhood, when my dad-who’s himself a passionate airman-took my brother and me regularly to the nearby airfield for a flight. The interest grew steadily over time, and, ultimately, in the age of 14, I started with the training for the glider pilot license.

Gliding is a time-intensive and social activity. It takes a minimum of four to five people on the ground to get one glider in the air. Once airborne, the glider pilot can view the world from a bird’s perspective. In fact, on the search for thermals or other natural uplifts like windward faced ridges or mountain waves, you may enjoy the grand experience of sharing a thermal updraft with an eagle or a buzzard. Cross-country flying in sailplanes is a challenging task, but experienced pilots can fly distances of up to thousand kilometer or more.

Later on, I continued with the flight training and made the so-called sports pilot license. With this license in my pocket, I was allowed to fly microlight aircraft. These are small single-engine aircraft with a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) limited to 472.5kg. Due to their limited weight and (relatively) modern engines, they provide a low cost entry into engine-powered flying. Since, however-not the least due to my father-my excitement is for vintage aircraft, I immediately continued the training to obtain a private pilot license (PPL). With this license the MTOW depends on the particular aircraft and I subsequently made class-ratings for planes with a MTOW of 750kg and later 2 tonnes. At the time, this license allowed me to fly the Piper Pa-18 of a friend of mine, for what I am highly indebted to him. His Pa-18 was built in 1953 and served in the Belgium military as a basic trainer after World War II. It’s a great plane and offers a lot of fun for your buck!

Over the years, I made several trips to other European countries ranging from Norway to Croatia. It’s always amazing to see the landscapes change beneath you and be able to travel to less known places.

Since August 2016, I am regularly flying an open-canopy biplane from the early 1970s. This Starduster Too is an American kit plane powered by a flat-4-cylinder Lycoming O-360 engine that is powerful enough for some advanced aerobatics.

France and Spain

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France and Spain

Gliding

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Gliding

Starduster Too

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Starduster Too

Scandinavia

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Scandinavia

Contact