About Me

Welcome to my homepage!

I am a research economist in the monetary policy department at De Nederlandsche Bank (the Dutch central bank). My core research interests lie in the fields of macroeconomics, monetary policy and the macro-finance linkages.

Please click on the links above to find out more about me, my research and other interests, or feel free to contact me directly.

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  • NAMEGavin Goy
  • POSITIONEconomist at DNB
  • ADDRESSSpaklerweg 4, 1096 BA Amsterdam
  • E-MAIL[email protected]
  • PHONE+31 (0)20 5243 623

Resume

Relevant experience

EconomistNov. 2018 – current

De Nederlandsche Bank

PhD TraineeApril 2018 – Oct. 2018

European Central Bank

Visiting ResearcherMay 2016 – Oct 2018

De Nederlandsche Bank

Intern Operational Risk ManagementFeb. 2013 – May 2013

Commerzbank Frankfurt/Main

Research internshipOct. 2012 – Jan. 2013

ifo Institute Munich

Education

Ph.D. in Economics2015 – 2019

University of Amsterdam

M.Phil. in Economics2013 – 2015

Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam

B.Sc. in Economics2009 – 2012

Goethe University Frankfurt/Main

Please click here to download my CV.

Research

Publications

“Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union” (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2019) with Dennis Bonam

Abstract: Under monetary union, economic dynamics may diverge across countries due to regional inflation differentials and a pro-cyclical real interest rate channel, yet stability is generally ensured through endogenous adjustment of the real exchange rate. The speed of adjustment depends, inter alia, on the way agents form expectations. We propose a model in which agents’ expectations are largely based on domestic variables, and less so on foreign variables. We show that such home bias in expectations strengthens the real interest rate channel and causes country-specific shocks to generate larger and more prolonged macroeconomic imbalances.

 

“Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs” (forthcoming at Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization) with Cars Hommes and Kostas Mavromatis

Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of central bank forward guidance when central bank credibility is endogenous. In particular, we take a stylized New Keynesian model subject to an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates and heterogeneous and boundedly rational households. The central bank uses a bivariate VAR to forecast, not taking into account the time-variation in the distribution of aggregate expectations. We extend the central bank’s toolkit to allow for the publication of its own forecasts (Delphic guidance) and the (imperfectly credible) commitment to a future path of the nominal interest rate (Odyssean guidance). We find that both Delphic and Odyssean forward guidance increase the likelihood of recovery from a liquidity trap. While Odyssean guidance can increase ex post macroeconomic volatility, it still appears to be more powerful.

 

Working Papers

“Natural Rate Chimera and Bond Pricing Reality” (joint with Claus Brand and Wolfgang Lemke)

Abstract: Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate, trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are cornerstones determining equilibrium yields across maturities and macroeconomic trends. Taking into account the secular decline in equilibrium rates, term premia exhibit cyclical behavior over the business cycle, rather than the commonly reported trend. Our estimates suggest a fall in the natural rate from a pre-crisis level of about 3% to around zero, but estimates are subject to sizeable uncertainty. Including survey expectations can lift the natural rate estimates for recent quarters by a margin.

“A Structural Investigation of Quantitative Easing” with Gregor Boehl and Felix Strobel

Abstract: Did the Federal Reserves’ Quantitative Easing (QE) in the aftermath of the financial crisis have macroeconomic effects? To answer this question, we estimate a large-scale DSGE model over the sample from 1998 to 2020, including data of the Fed’s balance sheet. We allow for QE to affect the economy via multiple channels that arise from several financial frictions. Our nonlinear Bayesian likelihood approach fully accounts for the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. We find that between 2009 to 2015, QE increased output by about 1.2 percent. This reflects a net increase in investment of nearly 9 percent, that was accompanied by a 0.7 percent drop in aggregate consumption. While the effects of emergency liquidity provision measures were negligible due to their short-lived nature, both government bond and capital asset purchases were effective in improving financing conditions. Especially capital asset purchases significantly facilitated new investment and increased the production capacity. Against the backdrop of a fall in consumption, supply side effects dominated which led to a mild disinflationary effect of about 0.25 percent annually.

Work in progress

“Country risk premium shocks and capital controls across exchange rate regimes” with Dennis Bonam and Emmanuel de Veirman

Abstract: The euro area sovereign debt crisis proved that country risk premium shocks have adverse economic effects, not only in emerging economies, but advanced economies as well. Using a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregression model, we find that increases in the risk premium lower output under monetary union, yet not in countries with flexible exchange rates and independent monetary policies. We study the transmission mechanism in a two-country New Keynesian model and show that capital controls substantially attenuate the effects of risk premium shocks. However, the welfare gain of imposing capital controls hinges on the nature of the shock and
the prevailing exchange rate regime.

 

Policy discussions and Media

What drives low market-based inflation measures?“, (VBA Journaal, 2020) with Dirk Broeders, Annelie Petersen and Nander de Vette.

The Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Equilibrium Interest Rate“, (VoxEU April 2020), with Jan Willem van den End

Marktrentes reageren sterk op pandemie-aankoopprogramma” (ESB, 2020, in Dutch) with Jan Willem van den End

Gauging the impact of COVID-19 on market-based inflation expectations“,  (VoxEU May 2020) with Dirk Broeders, Annelie Petersen and Nander de Vette.

Teaching

Macroeconomic Policy in the EU:

Master-level course at the Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Spring 2021

Mathematics:

Undergraduate-level course at the University of Amsterdam, Teaching assistant to Dr. Joris Marée and Dr. Arjen Valstar, Fall 2015, 2016 and 2017

Macroeconomics II:

Graduate-level course at the Tinbergen Institute, Teaching assistant to Prof. Dr. Christian Stoltenberg, Spring 2015

Thesis supervision for BSc Econometrics:

Section of Quantitative Economic, Amsterdam School of Economics , Spring 2016

Other interests

Besides economics, my greatest passion is aviation. It all began in my early childhood, when my dad-who’s himself a passionate airman-took my brother and me regularly to the nearby airfield for a flight. The interest grew steadily over time, and, ultimately, in the age of 14, I started with the training for the glider pilot license.

Gliding is a time-intensive and social activity. It takes a minimum of four to five people on the ground to get one glider in the air. Once airborne, the glider pilot can view the world from a bird’s perspective. In fact, on the search for thermals or other natural uplifts like windward faced ridges or mountain waves, you may enjoy the grand experience of sharing a thermal updraft with an eagle or a buzzard. Cross-country flying in sailplanes is a challenging task, but experienced pilots can fly distances of up to thousand kilometer or more.

Later on, I continued with the flight training and made the so-called sports pilot license. With this license in my pocket, I was allowed to fly microlight aircraft. These are small single-engine aircraft with a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) limited to 472.5kg. Due to their limited weight and (relatively) modern engines, they provide a low cost entry into engine-powered flying. Since, however-not the least due to my father-my excitement is for vintage aircraft, I immediately continued the training to obtain a private pilot license (PPL). With this license the MTOW depends on the particular aircraft and I subsequently made class-ratings for planes with a MTOW of 750kg and later 2 tonnes. At the time, this license allowed me to fly the Piper Pa-18 of a friend of mine, for what I am highly indebted to him. His Pa-18 was built in 1953 and served in the Belgium military as a basic trainer after World War II. It’s a great plane and offers a lot of fun for your buck!

Over the years, I made several trips to other European countries ranging from Norway to Croatia. It’s always amazing to see the landscapes change beneath you and be able to travel to less known places.

Since August 2016, I am regularly flying an open-canopy biplane from the early 1970s. This Starduster Too is an American kit plane powered by a flat-4-cylinder Lycoming O-360 engine that is powerful enough for some advanced aerobatics.

France and Spain

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France and Spain

Gliding

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Gliding

Starduster Too

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Starduster Too

Scandinavia

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Scandinavia

Contact